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【字体选择ï¼?a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(16)">å¤?/a> <a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(14)"> ä¸?/a> <a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(12)">å°?/a>ã€?<font class="f12">2019/6/19 16:11:06</font>) </div> <div class="news_key"> 关键词:钢材 钢铁 钢材ç½?钢铁ç½?湖南钢材 湖南钢铁</div> <div class="news_img"><a ><img src="http://www.quina.biz/flashindex/tmxc735.jpg" width="735" height="60" border="0"></a></div> <div class="news_content" id="fontzoom"><P> 国内现货钢价虽时有起落,但总体依然处在小幅下跌的通道内。钢厂利润收缩,而产量却仍处高位。铁矿石市场总体坚挺,进口矿价更是创出了阶段性的新高。目前,国内高炉的开工率较高,多数钢企矿石库存普遍偏低,对矿石的需求量仍处高位。全国主要港口铁矿石库存已连续第10周出现降库。而国内钢价走势将以震荡下行为主,但幅度不会很大。铁矿石期现及指数价格均大幅抬升,连铁周环比上涨10%,港口现货价格周环比上涨35-50å…?吨,国产铁精粉价格持平。主力基差宽幅波动,整体有所回落,但贴水仍较大。PB粉涨幅居前,中低品价差继续扩大。块矿溢价持稳,球团溢价下滑ã€?-1价差继续走扩。螺矿比大幅下行è‡?.75,焦矿比降至2.72。供给端,澳巴发货总量微减93万吨è‡?080万吨,其中巴西矿发货量降幅较大,澳洲矿发货量微降。北方六港到货量再次大幅回落,环比减å°?28万吨è‡?63.4万吨。需求端ï¼?5港日均疏港量环比微降,仍åœ?90万吨之上,同比往年处于高位。全国高炉开工率小幅下降,唐山高炉开工率持平,粉矿日耗上升,矿石需求总体仍较为强劲。库存方面,45港进口矿库存继续下降åˆ?.2亿吨之下,环比减å°?63万吨è‡?1795万吨,其中澳矿降幅占比较大。钢厂库存可用天数环比增åŠ?天,仍处低位。成本方面,进口矿大涨,人民币贬值,矿石进口利润为负,海运费稳中有降。核心矛盾是需求旺盛,供给缓慢恢复。供给方面,主流矿种的发货量及预计到港量未有显著改善,淡水河谷释放增产信号,但力拓和必和必拓释放减少发货的消息。需求方面,高炉开工率维持在正常水平,钢厂未有主动减产迹象,铁矿石日耗维持高位。库存方面,港口库存从四月初开始持续下滑,对个别低库存运转的钢厂形成一定压力。受铁矿石价格快速走高影响,钢厂利润大幅收缩,对铁矿石继续上涨的接受能力较差。周度来看,短期铁矿炒作情绪有所消退,但暂无向下驱动。矿山总发货和到港量下降,而疏港量仍处高位,铁矿供需基本面偏强格局未改。下游钢厂产量居高不下,原料需求较为强劲。港口库存持续下降,去库速度超预期,钢厂库存仍低,刚需下补库预期犹存。盘面贴水较大,利于多头。短期矿价震荡偏强运行为主。风险点注意钢厂产量及矿山复产情况。铁矿石1909合约从走势上看,均线系统整体持续上行,仍然保持多头排列,短期均线虽随着市场整理时有回落,但一直保持在长期均线的上方,表明市场上行过程中节奏分明,进退有据。从持仓量与成交量变化看,上涨时成交与持仓同步放大,整理时减仓缩量,资金对走势把握相当有度。而交易量出现萎缩可能表明经过长期上涨之后,小资金已离开市场,资金集中度在提高。从当前走势看,未出现大资金离场迹象,后市市仍进上涨动力,短线回调为加仓提供了机会。在创出新高之后短线回调,与前期高点形成支撑带,并开始缩量,后市若整理结束之后重新上涨表明回测支撑有效,将展开新一波上涨,若跌破支撑则需进一步继续观察。在支撑带下沿尝试买入,若向上突破支撑带可加仓,冲破前高点继续持有,若下破支撑带则止损。铁矿石重新企稳,短线支撑放åœ?75附近位置,之上维持震荡强势,关注技术性企稳之后的资金博弈情况ã€? 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